Brooklyn Park, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

700
FXUS63 KMPX 110819
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
319 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke with diminished air quality expected today, but
  overall a quiet start to the week.

- The second half of the week continues to look warmer and more
  active with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
  through the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Surface obs from across the Upper Midwest early this morning show
visibilities have fallen into the 3-5 mile range for a large portion
of the eastern Dakotas and western/central Minnesota. This is due to
a mix of fog and the return of near surface wildfire smoke. Air
quality readings suggest that the vis reductions across North Dakota
are primarily smoke related, with areas further east more in the fog
camp. Smoke will be transported eastward through the day with
northern and central Minnesota seeing the greatest impacts per the
MPCA forecast. Other than those concerns, today will be quiet with
temperatures in the low 80s. Overnight, an approaching cold front
will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms into early Tuesday.
Have increased PoPs, particularly for central Minnesota, but QPF
amounts are on the order of 0.25" or less. Once this clears out by
late morning, we`ll be dry and mostly sunny through Wednesday.

The second half of the forecast period will feature the return of
warmer temps and multiple chances for showers and storms, some of
which could be heavy. This first chance arrives Wednesday night with
an increasing LLJ across the Dakotas and western Minnesota as a warm
front makes its way northward. Pwats begin to ramp up with values
around 1.5" Thursday. By early Friday, guidance suggests they could
top 1.75" into Saturday as a front stalls out somewhere near
southern Minnesota. A couple of shortwaves will move through the
region, but the timing is still somewhat uncertain. In any case, the
threat for locally heavy rain exists Friday and Saturday. WPC has
highlighted the majority of Minnesota and western Wisconsin in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for these two days. Severe
weather wise, depending on the timing of the forcing, we could see
some thunder but it`s too early to hone in on specific details. ML
guidance does highlight the MPX CWA with some severe probs, so will
need to monitor this threat over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

There are still two main concerns. One is another round of early
morning fog in central and eastern MN and western WI. The most
significant fog should be in KEAU. The other issue is that it
is looking likely that there will be some reduced visibility on
Monday due to incoming smoke. The area of surface or near
surface smoke has been very slow to move east, owing to light
winds. There have been some locales in central/eastern ND and
central SD with IFR visibility, and even some in eastern SD.
Will indicate MVFR visibility from smoke for our western sites
starting around sunrise, then gradually moving east. It may not
reach western WI until late Monday. Otherwise, dry weather is
expected through Monday evening with winds under 10 knots.

KMSP...Ground fog still looks likely, developing just prior to
the Monday morning push. Have advertised MVFR at this point but
IFR visibility still cannot be ruled out. Also have added 6SM
in smoke by late morning Monday, based on observations in the
Dakotas and forecast trajectories.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 5-15 kts bcmg NW.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts bcmg S.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...TDK